In Defense of Statistics and Private Health Care

Sally Pipes attempts to explain why using 45 million uninsured Americans to justify socialized medicine is wrong.  I think that she is remarkably successful.  Instead of 45 million uninsured (the PC term is “chronically uninsured”), we are more realistically talking about at most 8 million.  If the current system works for 97% of Americans (including those here illegally), then why are we proposing to throw the baby out with the bath water?

Here’s the crux of the argument:

1. The Current Population Survey (CPS) of the Census Bureau estimates the number of uninsured at 45.7 million.  Like any survey, the CPS has a margin of error, usually +-3%.
2. However, health insurance coverage is likely to be underreported on the CPS.  Underreports (i.e. people not answering question one way or another) are generally thrown out, reducing the sample population and increasing the margin of error anywhere for +-5% to +-10% or more, depending on the severity of the underreport.
3. The Census Bureau itself cautions that we should not assume that all 45.7 million people are “chronically uninsured.”  On the contrary, the CPS is a snapshot in time.  This tells me, as one who uses statistics for a living, that the survey asked the question something like this: “At the present time, do you have health insurance?”
4. What we now know as a result of the Census Bureau’s caveats is this: that at the time of the last CPS, the total statistical population of uninsured people is between 40 and 50 million.
5. Who are these uninsured individuals?  Well, they cut across almost all demographic lines.  There is no stereotypical uninsured person per se.
6. 9.1 million (again give or take 10%) make over $75,000 per year.  An additional 8.4 million make between $50,000 and $75,000 per year.  Depending on where you live that may a lot or not so much, but generally speaking you’re safely middle-class at that income.
7. An additional 10 million are illegal immigrants.  Under no plan currently envisioned, except as part of a socialist’s wet dream, would these individuals receive insurance coverage.
8. 14 million, according to the CPS, are already eligible for government assistance programs that are currently in place.  Frighteningly 70% of uninsured children could get coverage under S-CHIP or Medicaid.  27% of the non-elderly uninsured could get Medicaid coverage, yet choose not to.
9. So, now, we know the whole story: Of the 45 million, almost 40% make enough money to afford health insurance and choose not to get it. Another 22% are here illegally and would not be eligible under any imaginable system.  Finally, 31% fail to utilize the government resources that are available to them.  That leaves 7% of 45 million, 8 million (or roughly 3% of the American population) who are chronically uninsured.

So, at the end of this long-winded argument, what can we say.  First, we know that 8 million people have been failed by the present system.  Secondly, and more importantly, we know that almost 31.5 million Americans opt out of the current system, despite the fact that they could easily get coverage.  Thirdly, it tells us that the current private insurance system meets the needs of roughly 97% of Americans.  Finally, it points out that we are being fed a bag of lies by those who seek radical upheaval in the current system for no other purpose than imposing their own government-run system.

A thorough understanding of basic statistics and the survey assumptions would serve both sides better.  Less demagoguery and more actual solutions for those who truly need them.